Calculating Daily Anomaly Range for Mixpanel Alerts Manually
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Can I hand calculate the anomaly range Mixpanel would calculate for a daily anomaly alert? If so, how?
Can I hand calculate the anomaly range Mixpanel would calculate for a daily anomaly alert? If so, how?
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Mixpanel’s Anomaly Detection feature uses the open-source forecasting tool Prophet to automatically determine the expected range for your metrics and to identify anomalies when data points fall outside a calculated confidence interval. The confidence interval reflects the level of certainty that a data point is an anomaly, and you can adjust this interval when setting up the alert. Prophet is specifically designed to forecast time series data and can identify missing data points, trend shifts, and large outliers.However, the knowledge sources do not provide the exact mathematical formula or step-by-step process that Mixpanel (via Prophet) uses to calculate the anomaly range for a daily anomaly alert. While Prophet is open-source and its methodology is documented externally, Mixpanel does not expose the underlying calculations or parameters (such as how much historical data is used, how seasonality is handled, or the exact confidence interval settings) in its documentation.Therefore, you cannot hand-calculate the exact anomaly range that Mixpanel would calculate for a daily anomaly alert using only the information provided in the knowledge sources. You can adjust the confidence interval in the Mixpanel UI to make the anomaly detection more or less sensitive, but the actual computation is handled internally by Prophet within Mixpanel and is not detailed for manual replication.For more information, see the documentation on Anomaly Detection and the note about Prophet as the underlying tool here.
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I'm sorry, but the knowledge sources do not provide a rough method or formula for hand-calculating the anomaly range that Mixpanel would calculate for a daily anomaly alert. The documentation only states that Mixpanel uses the open-source Prophet tool to forecast time series data and determine expected ranges, but it does not detail the steps, parameters, or a simplified approach that could be used for manual calculation. All anomaly range calculations are handled internally by Mixpanel using Prophet, and no manual or approximate method is described in the available documentation Docs: Alerts - Additional Information.
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