Question about calculating hypergeometric distribution

  • 31 May 2019
  • 2 replies


So, I was reading this guide on calculating and I couldn't understand how you had arrived on this:

>The higher the probability, the higher likelihood that variations we see in conversion rate are due to random chance.

Is there any reasoning behind why higher probability = higher likelihood of conversion being due to random chance?

2 replies

Userlevel 2

Hi @svikashk, I am assuming the "higher probability = higher likelihood" is based on the Probability theory of Hypergeometric distribution... I was able to do some research on Hypergeometric distribution and found this wiki page that goes deeper on how Hypergeometric distribution is calculated.


Hi @james,

I was more confused on how they had arrived at higher probability means higher likelihood of it being due to random chance and not due to some significance.

If I understand it right, I think mixpanel's guide says we calculate the p value (the significance) by 1 minus the sum of these centurial values.